Analysis at University of Colorado continues to predict a Romney win

Six weeks ago the University of Colorado announced an analysis that predicted a Romney win in November.

It was an analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU-Denver said the key is the economy

Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

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U P D A T E D - R E S U L T S

An update to the election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

From their updated report:

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast is based on more recent economic data than their original August 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” said political science professor Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

The updated analysis is here. The original report is here.