A Wall Street Journal Law Blog reports on how the Supreme Court could rule on the signature accomplishment of Barack Obama’s presidency.
The report lists three possibilities:
1. The entire law is upheld.
The high court may conclude that Congress was acting within its powers under the Constitution when it required most Americans to buy health insurance or pay a penalty. That provision was at the center of the two-year legal battle, and if it survives, the rest of the law is likely to stay as well.
Such a ruling would be a victory for Democrats and President Barack Obama, who had passed the biggest reworking to the health system since the creation of Medicare in the 1960s and faced the prospect of the court nullifying their effort.
2. The insurance mandate is struck down, but the entire rest of law stays.
This would be the worst-case scenario for insurance companies and set off a scramble for the Obama administration and supporters of the law to prove that it could still work. Unless Congress took further action, insurers would be required to accept all customers starting in 2014–even those who are already sick–without imposing surcharges for pre-existing medical conditions.
Also, people would not be required to carry health coverage allowing people to wait until they were sick to sign up for a medical insurance policy.
3. The mandate that all Americans buy health insurance and two related provisions are struck down but the rest of the law stays.
The insurance mandate was inextricably linked to two other provisions. Those provisions require insurers to accept all customers and restrict the insurers from charging more based on a person’s medical history. The administration holds that if the mandate were struck down, the other two provisions should go as well.
4. The entire law is struck down.
Such a ruling would unravel all the work by the health industry and local governments preparing for the law.
It would be a painful blow to Mr. Obama and Democrats who spent so much time and political capital on their health-care overhaul.
In our view this is the best possible option.
Posted by: Jo | June 24, 2012 at 12:43 AM